Steelers vs Browns — Week 17, 2021
The Steelers took over leading 19-14 with 1:09 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 26, Browns 14. Steelers won 26-14 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.9% for Steelers. Our model starts at 95.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:09) 22-N.Harris left guard to CLE 41 for 4 yards (93-T.Togiai).
- (1:04) 22-N.Harris up the middle to CLE 37 for 4 yards (38-A.Green; 56-M.Smith).
- (1:00) 22-N.Harris right tackle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.80 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -2.86 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.31 pts |
| Deep post | -9.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.