Ravens vs Steelers — Week 18, 2021
The Ravens took over trailing 13-10 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 13, Steelers 13. Tied 13-13 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 32, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 34.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 12-R.Bateman (95-C.Wormley).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 43 for 11 yards (55-D.Bush).
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley scrambles left end to PIT 36 for 21 yards (93-J.Schobert).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Andrews (34-Te.Edmunds) [56-A.Highsmith].
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to PIT 28 for 8 yards (23-J.Haden, 27-M.Allen).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley left guard to PIT 28 for no gain (97-C.Heyward, 90-T.Watt).
- (1:17) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.76 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.76 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.43 pts |
| QB keep | +1.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Deep post | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.85 pts |
| End-around | -1.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.19 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.