Lions vs Packers — Week 18, 2021
The Lions took over trailing 30-27 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 37, Packers 30. Lions won 37-30 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.0% for Lions. Our model starts at 31.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) 11-K.Raymond right end to DET 38 for 13 yards (93-T.Slaton). GB-39-C.Sullivan was injured during the play.
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 34 for 28 yards (26-D.Savage).
- (3:42) 30-J.Williams left tackle to GB 32 for 2 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 11-K.Raymond to GB 29 for 3 yards (42-O.Burks).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright to GB 14 for 15 yards (26-D.Savage). DET-14-A.St. Brown was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.93 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep post | -0.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.91 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| End-around | -1.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.