Ravens vs Browns — Week 14, 2021
The Ravens took over trailing 24-22 with 1:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 22, Browns 24. Browns won 24-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Ravens ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 41, 1:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.6% for Ravens. Our model starts at 44.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 31 for -10 yards (90-J.Clowney).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 45 for 14 yards (43-J.Johnson).
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.22 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.91 pts |
| QB keep | +1.74 pts |
| Play action | +1.10 pts |
| Quick out | +0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.84 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.42 pts |
| Deep post | -0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| End-around | -2.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.89 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.