Eagles vs Panthers — Week 5, 2021
The Eagles took over trailing 18-13 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at the Panthers 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 21, Panthers 18. Eagles won 21-18 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Panthers territory, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 39.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right tackle to CAR 26 for 1 yard (95-D.Brown).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert to CAR 6 for 20 yards (34-S.Chandler; 42-S.Franklin).
- (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert.
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-J.Hurts pass to 6-D.Smith is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.23 pts |
| QB keep | +1.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Field goal | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Deep post | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.