Bears vs Ravens — Week 11, 2021
The Bears took over trailing 9-7 with 3:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bears 13, Ravens 16. Ravens won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 39.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney (93-C.Campbell).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 37 for 12 yards (21-B.Stephens).
- (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Mooney.
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Goodwin.
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to CHI 46 for 9 yards (99-O.Oweh; 49-C.Board).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to BAL 48 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney to BAL 44 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep middle to 10-D.Byrd.
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney (30-C.Westry).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-A.Dalton pass to 11-D.Mooney is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +1.09 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.78 pts |
| Deep post | -0.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.96 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -2.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.