Panthers vs Commanders — Week 11, 2021
The Panthers took over trailing 24-21 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 21, Commanders 27. Commanders won 27-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 33.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 22 for 7 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 23-W.Jackson).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 2-Dj.Moore pushed ob at CAR 28 for 6 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 32 for 4 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [93-Jon.Allen].
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 34 for 2 yards (31-K.Curl).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Deep post | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.