Dolphins vs Patriots — Week 18, 2021
The Dolphins took over leading 27-24 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 33, Patriots 24. Dolphins won 33-24 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:53 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.4% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 76.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe to MIA 40 for 15 yards (2-J.Mills).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 28-D.Johnson right tackle to MIA 38 for -2 yards (91-D.Wise).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-D.Johnson right guard to MIA 42 for 4 yards (8-J.Bentley; 92-D.Godchaux).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles right end to NE 47 for 11 yards (33-J.Williams, 90-C.Barmore). NE-90-C.Barmore was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (1:48) 28-D.Johnson left tackle to NE 44 for 3 yards (8-J.Bentley, 98-Ca. Davis).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 28-D.Johnson right guard to NE 42 for 2 yards (9-M.Judon).
- (:59) 28-D.Johnson left tackle to NE 42 for no gain (58-J.Collins).
- (:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to NE 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| Outside run | +0.40 pts |
| QB keep | +0.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.02 pts |
| Quick out | -0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.19 pts |
| Inside run | -0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Curl route | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Play action | -1.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.46 pts |
| End-around | -3.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.08 pts |
| Deep post | -5.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.