Buccaneers vs Bills — Week 14, 2021
The Buccaneers took over leading 27-24 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 27, Bills 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.4% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 73.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-C.Brate to TB 30 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 41 for 11 yards (23-M.Hyde).
- (3:38) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to TB 45 for 4 yards (51-E.Ankou; 99-H.Phillips).
- (3:35) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin.
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 35 for -10 yards (58-M.Milano).
- (3:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to BUF 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 23 for 5 yards (48-G.Stuard; 52-K.Britt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| QB keep | -0.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Quick out | -0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Curl route | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -3.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.25 pts |
| Deep post | -5.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.