Falcons vs Commanders — Week 4, 2021
The Falcons took over leading 30-28 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 30, Commanders 34. Commanders won 34-30 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.0% for Falcons. Our model starts at 70.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) 28-M.Davis left end to ATL 22 for -3 yards (93-Jon.Allen).
- (3:07) 28-M.Davis left tackle to ATL 26 for 4 yards (93-Jon.Allen).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 28-M.Davis to ATL 31 for 5 yards (98-M.Ioannidis) [90-M.Sweat].
- (2:00) 7-Y.Koo punts 45 yards to WAS 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -3.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.70 pts |
| Deep post | -5.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.