Packers vs Browns — Week 16, 2021
The Packers took over leading 24-22 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Browns 22. Packers won 24-22 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 67.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to GB 32 for 7 yards (36-M.Stewart).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to GB 38 for 6 yards (4-A.Walker; 28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (21-D.Ward).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 33-A.Jones to GB 42 for 4 yards (4-A.Walker, 92-S.Day).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
- (2:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at CLE 25 for 8 yards (41-H.Black).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.30 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.01 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Curl route | -0.69 pts |
| Play action | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.13 pts |
| End-around | -3.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.65 pts |
| Deep post | -4.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.