Raiders vs Chargers — Week 18, 2021
The Raiders took over tied at 32 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 35, Chargers 32. Raiders won 35-32 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 54.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 89-B.Edwards to LV 42 for 17 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (3:53) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 49 for 7 yards (33-D.James).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 30-J.Richard to LV 44 for -5 yards (33-D.James) [44-K.White].
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at LAC 45 for 11 yards (26-A.Samuel) [42-U.Nwosu].
- (2:00) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LAC 46 for -1 yards (98-L.Joseph).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to LAC 39 for 7 yards (9-K.Murray, 44-K.White).
- (:38) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LAC 29 for 10 yards (93-J.Jones).
- (:02) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.52 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.40 pts |
| Curl route | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.24 pts |
| Play action | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.40 pts |
| End-around | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Deep post | -3.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.