Chiefs vs Giants — Week 8, 2021
The Chiefs took over tied at 17 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 20, Giants 17. Chiefs won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 29, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 55.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [53-O.Ximines].
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 38 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan). PENALTY on NYG-48-T.Crowder, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 38.
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right guard to NYG 39 for 8 yards (22-A.Jackson; 23-L.Ryan).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right guard to NYG 33 for 6 yards (48-T.Crowder; 49-B.McKinney).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman to NYG 9 for 24 yards (22-A.Jackson).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right guard to NYG 10 for -1 yards (98-A.Johnson).
- (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to NYG 8 for 2 yards (55-R.Ragland).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at NYG 16 for -8 yards (31-K.Crossen).
- (1:12) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.43 pts |
| Curl route | +0.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.09 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.28 pts |
| Play action | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.56 pts |
| End-around | -2.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.