Giants vs Falcons — Week 3, 2021
The Giants took over tied at 14 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Giants 14, Falcons 17. Falcons won 17-14 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 53.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at NYG 29 for 4 yards (39-T.Green).
- (4:07) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley left guard to NYG 35 for 6 yards (54-F.Oluokun).
- (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 82-K.Smith to NYG 44 for 9 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (3:06) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 43 for -1 yards (55-S.Means, 54-F.Oluokun).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-E.Engram (35-A.Williams).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 40 for -9 yards (6-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (6-D.Fowler) [6-D.Fowler], and recovers at NYG 40. Penalty on NYG-76-N.Solder, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to 50 for 10 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Curl route | +0.47 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Play action | -0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.21 pts |
| End-around | -2.51 pts |
| Deep post | -2.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.