Packers vs Bengals — Week 5, 2021
The Packers took over tied at 22 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Packers 22, Bengals 22. Tied 22-22 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 39, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 60.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (22-C.Awuzie).
- (4:10) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 89-M.Lewis pushed ob at CIN 41 for 20 yards (24-V.Bell).
- (4:02) 33-A.Jones right tackle to CIN 42 for -1 yards (57-G.Pratt).
- (3:20) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at CIN 47 for -5 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to CIN 32 for 15 yards (30-J.Bates) [91-T.Hendrickson]. CIN-30-J.Bates was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Outside run | +0.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Curl route | +0.11 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Play action | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.75 pts |
| End-around | -2.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.84 pts |
| Deep post | -3.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.