Dolphins vs Patriots — Week 1, 2021
The Dolphins took over leading 17-16 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 17, Patriots 16. Dolphins won 17-16 — the drive time expired.
Dolphins ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. Backed up at their own 9, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 62.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 62.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 11-D.Parker to MIA 18 for 13 yards (2-J.Mills).
- (2:42) Direct snap to 34-M.Brown. 34-M.Brown up the middle to MIA 20 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
- (2:36) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 25 for 5 yards (50-C.Winovich, 93-L.Guy).
- (2:31) 34-M.Brown left guard to MIA 29 for 4 yards (98-C.Davis, 93-L.Guy).
- (2:24) MIA 14-Brissett now at QB. 14-J.Brissett up the middle to MIA 31 for 2 yards (8-J.Bentley, 92-D.Godchaux).
- (2:00) MIA 1-Tagovailoa now at QB. 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to MIA 30 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to MIA 30 for no gain.
- (:36) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to MIA 29 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Outside run | -1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.65 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.66 pts |
| Quick out | -1.82 pts |
| QB keep | -1.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.97 pts |
| Curl route | -2.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.32 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.39 pts |
| End-around | -4.63 pts |
| Deep post | -4.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.