Raiders vs Colts — Week 17, 2021
The Raiders took over tied at 20 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 23, Colts 20. Raiders won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.9% for Raiders. Our model starts at 58.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to LV 34 for 9 yards (53-D.Leonard).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs to LV 38 for 4 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin) [99-D.Buckner].
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones to IND 48 for 14 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 13-H.Renfrow [95-T.Stallworth].
- (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Edwards.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to IND 24 for 24 yards (23-K.Moore) [57-K.Turay].
- (:48) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 22 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (:44) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 17 for 5 yards (58-B.Okereke, 44-Z.Franklin).
- (:39) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to IND 15 for 2 yards (58-B.Okereke, 99-D.Buckner).
- (:02) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.57 pts |
| QB keep | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.30 pts |
| Curl route | +1.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.47 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.83 pts |
| Deep post | -2.36 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.