Raiders vs Browns — Week 15, 2021
The Raiders took over trailing 14-13 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 16, Browns 14. Raiders won 16-14 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 47.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-F.Moreau to LV 31 for 6 yards (39-R.LeCounte).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at LV 38 for 7 yards (26-G.Williams).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Williams at CLE 16. 26-G.Williams to CLE 23 for 7 yards (13-H.Renfrow).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| QB keep | +1.05 pts |
| Curl route | +1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.51 pts |
| Deep post | -1.68 pts |
| End-around | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.