Browns vs Bengals — Week 18, 2021
The Browns took over leading 21-16 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 21, Bengals 16. Browns won 21-16 — the drive time expired.
Browns ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.8% for Browns. Our model starts at 93.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) 30-D.Johnson left tackle to CIN 49 for 2 yards (44-C.Johnston; 90-K.Kareem).
- (2:00) 30-D.Johnson right guard to CIN 42 for 7 yards (31-Mi.Thomas; 99-T.Shelvin).
- (1:16) 5-C.Keenum up the middle to CIN 40 for 2 yards (51-M.Bailey).
- (:34) 5-C.Keenum kneels to CIN 41 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick out | -0.95 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.98 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.64 pts |
| Curl route | -2.93 pts |
| End-around | -5.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.04 pts |
| Deep post | -8.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.