Vikings vs Chargers — Week 10, 2021
The Vikings took over leading 27-20 with 4:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Chargers 20. Vikings won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.5% for Vikings. Our model starts at 90.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 30-C.Ham to MIN 18 for 3 yards (9-K.Murray, 44-K.White).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 29 for 11 yards (36-T.Marshall, 93-J.Jones).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at LAC 44 for 27 yards (20-T.Campbell). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to MIN 46 for 5 yards (33-D.James).
- (2:45) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 83-T.Conklin.
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to LAC 36 for 18 yards (20-T.Campbell).
- (2:32) 33-D.Cook right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (98-L.Joseph). LAC-99-J.Tillery was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 35 for -3 yards.
- (1:15) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 37 for -2 yards.
- (:32) 8-K.Cousins kneels to LAC 39 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.94 pts |
| Deep post | -8.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.