Chargers vs Steelers — Week 11, 2021
The Chargers took over leading 34-27 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 41, Steelers 37. Chargers won 41-37 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.5% for Chargers. Our model starts at 90.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton (97-C.Heyward) at LAC 15. 20-C.Sutton to LAC 11 for 4 yards (74-S.Norton). PIT-20-C.Sutton was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.87 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.93 pts |
| Deep post | -8.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.