Texans vs Titans — Week 11, 2021
The Texans took over leading 19-13 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at the Titans 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Texans 22, Titans 13. Texans won 22-13 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At the Titans 15, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 95.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to TEN 14 for 1 yard (96-D.Autry).
- (3:38) 31-D.Johnson left guard to TEN 15 for -1 yards (58-H.Landry, 56-M.Rice).
- (3:34) 31-D.Johnson left guard to TEN 14 for 1 yard (98-J.Simmons).
- (3:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.00 pts |
| Field goal | +0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.93 pts |
| Curl route | -3.37 pts |
| End-around | -5.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.29 pts |
| Deep post | -9.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.