Steelers vs Seahawks — Week 6, 2021
The Steelers took over tied at 20 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at the Seahawks 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 20, Seahawks 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. At the Seahawks 16, 4:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.2% for Steelers. Our model starts at 76.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) 7-B.Roethlisberger right guard to SEA 19 for -3 yards.
- (3:34) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to SEA 19 for no gain.
- (2:55) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+3.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +3.44 pts |
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.35 pts |
| QB keep | +0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.17 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Curl route | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.27 pts |
| Spike it | -2.10 pts |
| End-around | -3.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.88 pts |
| Deep post | -7.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.