Cardinals vs 49ers — Week 5, 2021
The Cardinals took over leading 17-10 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 17, 49ers 10. Cardinals won 17-10 — the drive time expired.
Cardinals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.1% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 91.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 27 for 2 yards (96-M.Hurst, 3-J.Tartt).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 64-S.Harlow reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 38 for 11 yards (4-E.Moseley).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 46 for 8 yards (4-E.Moseley; 1-J.Ward).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray kneels to ARI 48 for -2 yards.
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray kneels to ARI 46 for -2 yards.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray kneels to ARI 43 for -3 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.98 pts |
| Deep post | -8.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.