Buccaneers vs Jets — Week 17, 2021
The Buccaneers took over trailing 24-20 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 28, Jets 24. Buccaneers won 28-24 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 7, 2:12 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 18.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 18-T.Johnson to TB 15 for 8 yards (30-M.Carter).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Grayson to TB 18 for 3 yards (30-M.Carter).
- (1:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Grayson (37-B.Hall).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 15-C.Grayson to TB 24 for 6 yards (33-E.Riley; 56-Qu.Williams).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 18-T.Johnson to TB 30 for 6 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Johnson.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 18-T.Johnson to NYJ 43 for 27 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 15-C.Grayson to NYJ 33 for 10 yards (37-B.Hall).
- (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-L.Bell rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.71 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.13 pts |
| Curl route | -1.14 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.47 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -1.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.96 pts |
| Outside run | -1.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.44 pts |
| End-around | -2.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.