Chargers vs Browns — Week 5, 2021
The Chargers took over trailing 42-35 with 4:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 47, Browns 42. Chargers won 47-42 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 14.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 29 for 4 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah) [55-T.McKinley]. FUMBLES (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah), ball out of bounds at LAC 29.
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 30 for 1 yard (4-A.Walker; 33-R.Harrison).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen ran ob at CLE 33 for 37 yards.
- (3:44) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-J.Guyton to CLE 12 for 21 yards (23-T.Hill; 26-G.Williams). Penalty on CLE-26-G.Williams, Taunting, offsetting. Penalty on LAC-15-J.Guyton, Taunting, offsetting.
- (3:32) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at CLE 9 for 3 yards (26-G.Williams). CLE-26-G.Williams was injured during the play.
- (3:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Deep post | +0.34 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.08 pts |
| End-around | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.