Eagles vs Giants — Week 12, 2021
The Eagles took over trailing 13-7 with 2:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 7, Giants 13. Giants won 13-7 — the drive turnover.
Eagles ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Eagles. Our model starts at 14.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 18-J.Reagor to PHI 40 for 10 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right tackle to PHI 43 for 3 yards (51-A.Ojulari).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to NYG 49 for 8 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard to NYG 45 for 4 yards (97-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 37.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.26 pts |
| Deep post | +1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.71 pts |
| Play action | +0.55 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| End-around | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Spike it | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.