Commanders vs Eagles — Week 17, 2021
The Commanders took over trailing 20-16 with 2:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 16, Eagles 20. Eagles won 20-16 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.7% for Commanders. Our model starts at 22.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin (93-M.Williams).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 38-W.Smallwood (94-J.Sweat).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to WAS 35 for 10 yards (57-T.Edwards).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 38-W.Smallwood to WAS 39 for 4 yards (29-A.Maddox).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 32-J.Patterson pushed ob at WAS 44 for 5 yards (23-R.McLeod).
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 32-J.Patterson to PHI 47 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 11-C.Sims to PHI 35 for 12 yards (57-T.Edwards).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Sims (3-S.Nelson).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 32-J.Patterson to PHI 30 for 5 yards (29-A.Maddox).
- (:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 32-J.Patterson to PHI 20 for 10 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (:30) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left intended for 87-J.Bates INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod at PHI -2. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Deep post | +1.10 pts |
| QB keep | +1.09 pts |
| Play action | +0.83 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| End-around | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.