Bills vs Titans — Week 6, 2021
The Bills took over trailing 34-31 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Bills 31, Titans 34. Titans won 34-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 18, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Bills. Our model starts at 29.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 1-E.Sanders to BUF 49 for 31 yards (39-B.Borders).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 20-Z.Moss to TEN 39 for 12 yards (51-D.Long; 37-A.Hooker).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to TEN 32 for 7 yards (37-A.Hooker).
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TEN 12 for 20 yards (31-K.Byard, 24-E.Molden) [48-B.Dupree].
- (:50) (Shotgun) 20-Z.Moss up the middle to TEN 8 for 4 yards (51-D.Long).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Sanders [96-D.Autry].
- (:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle pushed ob at TEN 3 for 5 yards (37-A.Hooker).
- (:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Deep post | +0.10 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Outside run | -1.05 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.18 pts |
| Inside run | -1.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.00 pts |
| End-around | -2.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.