Cowboys vs Vikings — Week 8, 2021
The Cowboys took over trailing 16-13 with 2:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 20, Vikings 16. Cowboys won 20-16 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.6% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 30.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (27-C.Dantzler).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 42 for 33 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 24 for 18 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith), ball out of bounds at MIN 24.
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Schultz.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 85-N.Brown to MIN 12 for 7 yards (54-E.Kendricks; 23-X.Woods) [97-E.Griffen].
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to MIN 25 for -3 yards (24-M.Alexander).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to MIN 5 for 15 yards (27-C.Dantzler) [98-D.Wonnum].
- (:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.73 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.36 pts |
| QB keep | +1.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.51 pts |
| Deep post | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -1.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.