Bills vs Jaguars — Week 9, 2021
The Bills took over trailing 9-6 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bills 6, Jaguars 9. Jaguars won 9-6 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 29.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 13-G.Davis.
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 1-E.Sanders to BUF 39 for 19 yards (5-R.Ford). Jacksonville challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to BUF 44 for 5 yards (5-R.Ford).
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to JAX 42 for 14 yards (41-J.Allen, 21-N.Lawson).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-D.Singletary to JAX 39 for 3 yards (44-M.Jack).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 13-G.Davis [96-A.Gotsis].
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at JAX 48 for -9 yards (91-D.Smoot).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.29 pts |
| QB keep | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| End-around | -1.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.76 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.