Giants vs Saints — Week 4, 2021
The Giants took over trailing 21-18 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Saints 21. Tied 21-21 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 11, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 28.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to NYG 19 for 8 yards (20-P.Werner). Pass 6, YAC 2
- (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 89-K.Toney to NYG 24 for 5 yards (90-T.Kpassagnon; 20-P.Werner). Pass -3, YAC 8
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 19-K.Golladay.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 89-K.Toney to NYG 35 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss; 27-M.Jenkins). Pass 7, YAC 4
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram to NYG 38 for 3 yards (21-B.Roby). Pass 3, YAC 0
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right [97-M.Roach].
- (:58) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 19-K.Golladay to NO 34 for 28 yards (56-D.Davis). Pass 5, YAC 23
- (:48) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 26-S.Barkley.
- (:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 12-J.Ross [94-C.Jordan].
- (:42) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to NO 30 for 4 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (:36) 5-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.65 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.73 pts |
| Deep post | -1.02 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.17 pts |
| Play action | -1.31 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Outside run | -2.21 pts |
| Inside run | -2.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.97 pts |
| End-around | -3.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.