Titans vs Jets — Week 4, 2021
The Titans took over trailing 27-24 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Jets 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive missed field goal.
Titans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 32.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 22-D.Henry right end to TEN 21 for -4 yards (91-J.Franklin-Myers).
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 14 for -7 yards (47-B.Huff).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 80-C.Rogers to TEN 34 for 20 yards (21-A.Davis).
- (2:19) 22-D.Henry right end to TEN 47 for 13 yards (40-J.Guidry).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 28-J.McNichols to TEN 41 for -6 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 28-J.McNichols to TEN 46 for 5 yards (30-M.Carter II).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 9 yards (40-J.Guidry).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to NYJ 43 for 2 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 80-C.Rogers to NYJ 31 for 12 yards (21-A.Davis).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 28-J.McNichols [47-B.Huff].
- (:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep middle to 86-A.Firkser.
- (:24) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 28-J.McNichols [98-S.Rankins].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Deep post | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.