Jets vs Bengals — Week 8, 2021
The Jets took over trailing 31-26 with 4:32 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Jets 34, Bengals 31. Jets won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At the Bengals 14, 4:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.3% for Jets. Our model starts at 44.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:32) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right guard to CIN 13 for 1 yard (91-T.Hendrickson; 65-L.Ogunjobi).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 82-J.Crowder pass to 5-M.White is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. 5-White handoff to 8-Moore; lateral to 82-Crowder
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+9.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +9.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.24 pts |
| QB keep | +1.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Curl route | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| End-around | -1.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.77 pts |
| Deep post | -4.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.