Panthers vs Saints — Week 17, 2021
The Panthers took over trailing 18-10 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 10, Saints 18. Saints won 18-10 — the drive turnover.
Panthers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 23, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.1% for Panthers. Our model starts at 9.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right end to CAR 23 for no gain (70-C.Ringo; 96-C.Granderson).
- (3:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right end to CAR 32 for 9 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to CAR 34 for 2 yards (93-D.Onyemata; 96-C.Granderson).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end to CAR 40 for 6 yards (48-J.Gray).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 80-I.Thomas to CAR 43 for 3 yards (29-P.Adebo). Pass 2, YAC 1
- (1:35) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold left guard to CAR 44 for 1 yard (94-C.Jordan).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 35 for -9 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 2-Dj.Moore.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 31 for -10 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 2-Dj.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson [5-K.Alexander] at CAR 46. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to CAR 28 for 18 yards (30-C.Hubbard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.68 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Deep post | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| End-around | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.92 pts |
| Spike it | -1.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.