Ravens vs Colts — Week 5, 2021
The Ravens took over trailing 25-17 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 25, Colts 25. Tied 25-25 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.9% for Ravens. Our model starts at 9.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 33-D.Freeman [97-A.Muhammad].
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown to BAL 42 for 17 yards (52-B.Banogu).
- (4:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 33-D.Freeman to IND 48 for 10 yards (47-A.Chesley).
- (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 33-D.Freeman to IND 39 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (3:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to IND 33 for 6 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to IND 13 for 20 yards (23-K.Moore; 32-J.Blackmon).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 34-T.Williams to IND 5 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to IND 1 for 4 yards (53-D.Leonard).
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard to IND 4 for -3 yards (97-A.Muhammad).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.64 pts |
| Deep post | +0.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| End-around | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.87 pts |
| Spike it | -1.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.