Cowboys vs Raiders — Week 12, 2021
The Cowboys took over trailing 30-22 with 3:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 1 timeout in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 33, Raiders 33. Tied 33-33 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 31, 3:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 9.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 85-N.Brown to DAL 35 for 4 yards (32-D.Leavitt).
- (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at LV 33 for 32 yards (29-C.Hayward). LV-91-Y.Ngakoue was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LV 32 for 1 yard (92-S.Thomas).
- (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 86-D.Schultz is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.73 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.73 pts |
| Deep post | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| End-around | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.90 pts |
| Spike it | -1.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.