Saints vs Titans — Week 10, 2021
The Saints took over trailing 23-15 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Saints 21, Titans 23. Titans won 23-21 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 29, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.2% for Saints. Our model starts at 8.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway to TEN 49 for 22 yards (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on TEN-31-K.Byard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 49.
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Callaway (20-J.Jenkins).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 14-M.Ingram to TEN 29 for 5 yards (56-M.Rice).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 11-D.Harris to TEN 12 for 17 yards (55-J.Brown).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Ingram (92-O.Adeniyi).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 14-M.Ingram right tackle to TEN 10 for 2 yards (92-O.Adeniyi; 56-M.Rice).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 1-M.Callaway for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-T.Siemian pass to 14-M.Ingram is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| End-around | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
| Spike it | -0.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.