Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 3, 2021
The Chiefs took over tied at 24 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 24, Chargers 30. Chargers won 30-24 — the drive turnover.
Chiefs ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.7% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 57.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right tackle to KC 27 for 2 yards (98-L.Joseph; 49-D.Tranquill).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 32-A.Gilman at LAC 41. 32-A.Gilman to LAC 41 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.91 pts |
| Deep post | -2.45 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.