Vikings vs Lions — Week 13, 2021
The Vikings took over trailing 23-21 with 4:01 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Lions 29. Lions won 29-27 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At the Lions 19, 4:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.6% for Vikings. Our model starts at 64.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:01) 25-A.Mattison right end to DET 15 for 4 yards (21-T.Walker; 51-J.Woods).
- (3:24) 18-J.Jefferson right end to DET 11 for 4 yards (51-J.Woods).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 25-A.Mattison up the middle to DET 9 for 2 yards (31-D.Marlowe, 91-M.Brockers).
- (2:04) 25-A.Mattison left tackle to DET 4 for 5 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
- (2:00) 25-A.Mattison up the middle to DET 3 for 1 yard (75-L.Onwuzurike, 21-T.Walker).
- (1:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 18-J.Jefferson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+3.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +3.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Outside run | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Curl route | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Play action | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Spike it | -2.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.72 pts |
| End-around | -2.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.19 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.07 pts |
| Deep post | -5.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.