Falcons vs Lions — Week 16, 2021
The Falcons took over leading 20-16 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 20, Lions 16. Falcons won 20-16 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 85.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) 84-C.Patterson left end to ATL 28 for 3 yards (91-M.Brockers).
- (2:33) 28-M.Davis right tackle to ATL 28 for no gain (26-I.Melifonwu).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-R.Gage to ATL 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-31-D.Marlowe at ATL 37.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Play action | -1.83 pts |
| Curl route | -1.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.05 pts |
| Deep post | -7.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.