Bengals vs Broncos — Week 15, 2021
The Bengals took over leading 15-10 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 15, Broncos 10. Bengals won 15-10 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.1% for Bengals. Our model starts at 85.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 26 for 4 yards (98-M.Purcell). DEN-98-M.Purcell was injured during the play.
- (3:35) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 22 for -4 yards (sack split by 31-J.Simmons and 53-J.Cooper).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 37 for 15 yards (2-P.Surtain) [50-J.Griffith].
- (2:42) 28-J.Mixon right end to CIN 38 for 1 yard (2-P.Surtain). CIN-28-J.Mixon was injured during the play.
- (2:36) 70-D.Smith reported in as eligible. 34-S.Perine left tackle to CIN 39 for 1 yard (22-K.Jackson; 55-B.Chubb).
- (2:00) 70-D.Smith reported in as eligible. 34-S.Perine right end to CIN 42 for 3 yards (53-J.Cooper).
- (1:16) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 25 for 18 yards (84-M.Wilcox; 47-K.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.12 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| QB keep | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Play action | -2.02 pts |
| Curl route | -2.11 pts |
| End-around | -4.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -7.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.