Packers vs 49ers — Week 3, 2021
The Packers took over leading 24-21 with 4:58 left, 1st & 10 at the 49ers 38, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 30, 49ers 28. Packers won 30-28 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In 49ers territory, 4:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.9% for Packers. Our model starts at 80.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:58) 33-A.Jones up the middle to SF 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Ward).
- (4:15) 33-A.Jones up the middle to SF 22 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (3:33) 33-A.Jones up the middle to SF 20 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (4-E.Moseley).
- (2:43) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+2.00 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +2.00 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.03 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| QB keep | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Play action | -1.82 pts |
| Curl route | -1.84 pts |
| End-around | -3.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.90 pts |
| Deep post | -6.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.38 pts |
| Field goal | -8.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.