Browns vs Lions — Week 11, 2021
The Browns took over leading 13-10 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Browns 13, Lions 10. Browns won 13-10 — the drive time expired.
Browns ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 79.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to CLE 23 for 3 yards (53-C.Harris; 54-A.McNeill).
- (2:22) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CLE 27 for 4 yards (91-M.Brockers).
- (2:00) 24-N.Chubb right tackle pushed ob at CLE 38 for 11 yards (21-T.Walker).
- (1:54) 24-N.Chubb left tackle pushed ob at DET 47 for 15 yards (25-W.Harris).
- (1:45) 30-D.Johnson right guard to DET 42 for 5 yards (2-A.Bryant).
- (1:39) 30-D.Johnson right tackle to DET 39 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
- (1:34) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DET 36 for 3 yards (31-D.Marlowe; 21-T.Walker).
- (:49) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to DET 37 for -1 yards.
- (:31) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to DET 38 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.84 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.84 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| QB keep | +0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Curl route | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Play action | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.61 pts |
| End-around | -3.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.26 pts |
| Deep post | -6.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.