Falcons vs Saints — Week 9, 2021
The Falcons took over leading 24-19 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 27, Saints 25. Falcons won 27-25 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 84.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) Atlanta 15-F.Franks at quarterback. (Shotgun) 15-F.Franks right end to ATL 29 for -1 yards (5-K.Alexander, 56-D.Davis).
- (3:46) Atlanta 2-M.Ryan back at quarterback. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 18 for -11 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 18 for 0 yards (92-M.Davenport).
- (2:59) 12-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to ATL 43 for 26 yards (27-R.Grant).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.23 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.11 pts |
| Curl route | -2.20 pts |
| End-around | -4.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.28 pts |
| Deep post | -7.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.