Dolphins vs Ravens — Week 10, 2021
The Dolphins took over leading 15-10 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 22, Ravens 10. Dolphins won 22-10 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.1% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 84.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin up the middle to MIA 25 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 2-A.Wilson to BAL 11 for 64 yards (36-C.Clark) [93-C.Campbell].
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left guard to BAL 5 for 1 yard (92-J.Madubuike).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to BAL 3 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left guard to BAL 1 for 2 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:24) 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.16 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.05 pts |
| Curl route | -2.14 pts |
| End-around | -4.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -7.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.