Bengals vs Vikings — Week 1, 2021
The Bengals took over leading 24-21 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Vikings 24. Bengals won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.3% for Bengals. Our model starts at 74.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) 28-J.Mixon left end to CIN 34 for 9 yards (23-X.Woods).
- (4:08) 28-J.Mixon right guard to CIN 46 for 12 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (3:23) 28-J.Mixon right end to CIN 45 for -1 yards (94-D.Tomlinson; 58-M.Pierce).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard to MIN 48 for 7 yards (21-B.Breeland).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to MIN 47 for 1 yard (91-S.Weatherly).
- (1:55) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| Curl route | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -3.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.35 pts |
| Deep post | -6.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.