Bears vs Seahawks — Week 16, 2021
The Bears took over trailing 24-17 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
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What really happened
Final: Bears 25, Seahawks 24. Bears won 25-24 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.3% for Bears. Our model starts at 8.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 11-D.Mooney to 50 for 30 yards (6-Q.Diggs). PENALTY on SEA-52-D.Taylor, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery to SEA 25 for 10 yards (28-U.Amadi).
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to SEA 11 for 14 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at SEA 14 for -3 yards (8-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (8-C.Dunlap) [8-C.Dunlap], recovered by CHI-74-G.Ifedi at SEA 15.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Kmet.
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-N.Foles pass to 10-D.Byrd is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Deep post | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.41 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| End-around | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.94 pts |
| Spike it | -0.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.