Rams vs Seahawks — Week 15, 2021
The Rams took over leading 17-10 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at the Seahawks 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 20, Seahawks 10. Rams won 20-10 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Seahawks territory, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 96.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) 65-C.Shelton reported in as eligible. 25-S.Michel left end to SEA 18 for 17 yards (26-R.Neal).
- (2:33) 25-S.Michel up the middle to SEA 17 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor, 56-J.Brooks).
- (2:27) 25-S.Michel right tackle to SEA 21 for -4 yards (56-J.Brooks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-S.Michel right tackle to SEA 17 for 4 yards (8-C.Dunlap, 94-R.Green).
- (1:56) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.86 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.84 pts |
| Quick out | -1.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Field goal | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -3.02 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.47 pts |
| Deep post | -9.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.