Cowboys vs Panthers — Week 4, 2021
The Cowboys took over leading 36-28 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 36, Panthers 28. Cowboys won 36-28 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 19, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 92.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to DAL 37 for 18 yards (34-S.Chandler).
- (3:46) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to DAL 45 for 8 yards (21-J.Chinn).
- (3:02) 21-E.Elliott right guard to CAR 49 for 1 yard (43-H.Reddick).
- (2:23) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to CAR 41 for 8 yards (7-S.Thompson).
- (2:00) 20-T.Pollard right end to CAR 36 for 5 yards (4-J.Carter; 34-S.Chandler).
- (1:13) 4-D.Prescott kneels to CAR 36 for no gain.
- (:40) 4-D.Prescott kneels to CAR 37 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| QB keep | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.79 pts |
| Curl route | -3.10 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.